Chuck & Blair have been through pretty much everything and it isn't abou to get better.
Season 2 Episode 19- "The Grandfather"
As many have seen the 11 секунды long video of Blair & Chuck were Blair says "Take Me Now" it doesn't end well after Blair finally realises that Yale isn't going to happen she goes bad. During what I believe to be a party but it might not be Blair & Chuck Kiss but Chuck asks Blair for her old self back and she refuses after this Nate checks up on her and Blair holds his hand and asks him not to leave. This I think is how the Nate & Blair situation begins....
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